People seem convinced that a recovery is going to occur this year. But what is at the bottom of this assumption? The only bit of good news has been the stimulus package and we already know that the banks are hoarding about the same amount of money, so whatever effect that the stimulus could have will be canceled out by the hoarding of the banks.
Then, after the economy continues to weaken, they'll start to come to the realization that the problem is a little deeper than just frozen credit markets.
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